GE2025: How the PAP Clinched a Convincing Win - And What the Data Tells Us
Singapore’s 2025 General Election has concluded with the People’s Action Party (PAP) securing a stronger mandate, winning 87 of 97 seats, and growing their vote share compared to 2020. But behind the headlines lies a more nuanced picture of how the campaign played out, what messages resonated, and how different demographics engaged with the issues. Drawing on final-week polling from Blackbox Research, here’s a data-driven unpacking of what really happened at GE2025 – and what it means for Singapore’s political future.
The Ground Game That Made the Difference
Blackbox polling conducted on 29–30 April 2025 – just before the cooling-off period – predicted a PAP vote share of 63%, closely matching the final result of 65%. What helped PAP grow their advantage? A disciplined and highly targeted campaign strategy that made sure every vote was fought for – especially among younger and female voters.
While issues like the Trump tariffs had a more prominent impact in peer countries like Canada and Australia, in Singapore, the PAP successfully focused on the need for stability, certainty, and leadership continuity. Its ‘Action, Not Words’ messaging aligned with national concerns around cost of living and global headwinds.
Support for the PAP was broadly even across age groups, suggesting success in reaching Gen Z and Millennials – not traditionally their stronghold. Among women, support was notably stronger, correlating with heightened attention to cost-of-living and housing issues.
2. The Issues That Captured Attention
The top campaign concerns revealed in polling were overwhelmingly economic in nature:
Women were more likely to focus on affordability and financial stability, while men were more engaged in critiques of the campaign itself – including transparency, mayoral salaries, and candidate rhetoric. This difference also played out in voting patterns and media consumption (read more on election news intake below).
3. Whose Key Message Landed Best?
The campaign was dominated by two key arguments and while the PAP were able to thread its ‘certainty’ message into its wider message of ‘action not words’, it is evident that Singaporeans were nonetheless highly receptive to the necessity of a strong Opposition voice. Indeed, this argument was rated the stronger of the two opposing messages. Ultimately, however, voters may have found the offer more appealing than the final product.
Again, the gender gap in this election was reinforced in how voters responded to the two arguments – women were more evenly divided across the two, while 3 in 5 men found the Opposition argument more compelling.
4. How the Campaigns Measured Up
While much commentary focused on external geopolitical factors, Blackbox’s polling showed the PAP’s advantage came from campaign discipline and long-term planning. Operationally, they outperformed the Opposition on nearly every key campaign metric – particularly in local ground efforts and policy articulation.
The Workers’ Party (WP) was competitive in every seat they contested, although ultimately were successful only in defending seats they already had. Voters were impressed with WP’s rallies and the standard of their new candidates - topping even the PAP on these metrics. This illustrates that the WP now stands as Singapore’s only true, credible opposition party - for the moment, at least.
5. Workers’ Party Now Stands Alone
Unlike other parties, the WP was successful in staying competitive this time and now stand as the only real Opposition force in Singapore. Despite only standing in a limited number of seats, WP’s total vote share rose nearly four points to 15% from GE2020. In contrast, the other Opposition parties have been decimated in 2025. Their share of vote declined sharply and the campaign performance of the so-called ‘mosquito’ parties (combined) was rated a lowly -5% by Singaporean voters.
Blackbox polling shows that WP Leader Pritam Singh remains highly popular (on par with the Prime Minister Wong and Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong), and the WP campaign performance was rated +59% (good vs bad) by voters - even better than the PAP (+46%). Our final week polling also revealed that WP candidates such as Jamus Lim, Harpreet Singh and Alexis Dang all featured amongst the top 10 campaign performers, ahead of many well-established Ministers. They cut through with voters in a significant way.
6. Ranking Candidates’ Performance
While the final results were decisive for the PAP, the campaign was widely regarded as an exciting and competitive one, with the bar raised in terms of the strength of messaging and tenacity of the campaigning - albeit, the WP carried much of the weight in positive perception on the Opposition side of things.
A quirk of Singapore’s Group Representative Constituency (GRC) elective system also means that high performing individual candidates can lose out by a perceived weakness of the team overall. Of course, the converse is also true - with low performers capable of winning a seat when voters are unconvinced by them at the individual level.
Our pre-Polling Day data throws up some interesting results, highlighting top performers who didn’t manage to earn themselves a parliamentary seat in the end, as well as revealing some notable heavyweight names who - despite finding their way back to Parliament House - still left voters decidedly unimpressed on the campaign trail.
7. How Voters Engaged with Election Content
Voters didn’t just differ in what they cared about – they also diverged in how they consumed election information. Our data shows that parties reached voters through a wide array of channels, encompassing both traditional means such as the Straits Times and Channel News Asia, as well as social media platforms and podcasts.
This divergence in digital habits had real-world implications: campaigns that tailored their digital strategies accordingly gained stronger engagement, especially among younger, swing voters.
Final Word: Decisive Election Win Enhances PAP Leadership Credentials at Home and Abroad
The PAP Government should be both pleased and relieved with the result. Their vote share increased from 2020, and the ‘4G leadership’ has proven their mettle and delivered a decisive victory. This result has now secured their political primacy and legitimacy via the ballot box.
At home, the Prime Minister can continue to refresh the party and his Ministerial team. The new Parliament will also be comprised of many new (and younger) MPs offering fresh perspectives.
“Our final week polling revealed that the PAP had laid down solid tracks to win the election decisively and had left nothing to chance. The Trump tariffs undoubtedly helped the PAP add weight to their argument that experience counts, but first and foremost the success of this campaign was won on the ground. They really wanted it”
Internationally, the Government can also continue with its efforts to protect Singapore’s national interests. As in Australia and Canada, the Singapore election result demonstrates that voters want their Governments to stand up to the US and argue their case against tariffs. Voters have been clear – they do not want to be bullied by the US. All three countries champion the principles of free and fair trade and other nations may look at these election results and be heartened to see that incumbent Governments who held their nerve - and their principles - all performed well. Perhaps a longer-term trade war may not be as inevitable as some think.
Patience and inner strength may be the most crucial attributes in the months ahead. These are characteristics that the PAP continues to show in abundance.
Note on data: Data cited in this article comes from an online survey of 500 Singaporeans citizens eligible to vote and balanced by gender, location and income, per Singapore’s national demographics. Polling was carried out on the 29-30th April 2025. Results were not published until after the election, in accordance with Singapore election rules.
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